Trump Orders Reciprocal Tariffs, ILA Contract Vote, and More

This week:

President Trump pauses reciprocal tariffs for most US trading partners but raises rate on China
Following months of pre-tariff frontloading, US retailers slash import forecast for second quarter
Hopes for a trucking rebound in 2025 fade as US truckload and LTL sectors hit by tariff uncertainty
Following industry testimony, Congress introduces the CORCA bill to address the cargo theft crisis

Trump Pauses Most Reciprocal Tariffs, Raises Rate for China to 145%

The White House announced on Wednesday, April 9, that the US is pausing most of its recently announced country-specific tariffs for 90 days. The so-called reciprocal tariff policy, imposed on most US trading partners, had just gone into effect at 12:01 a.m. Wednesday. However, two components of President Donald Trump’s policy remain in place: a baseline minimum 10% tariff on all US imports and a significantly higher rate for most goods from China.

After China increased tariffs on US exports last week, President Trump responded by further raising the rate for US imports from China. On Wednesday, Trump implemented a 125% tariff on China. After several back-and-forth hikes between the two countries, the US had a 145% tariff on China in place as of Monday morning.

However, the White House announced an exemption over the weekend for smartphones, laptops, and other electronics imports from China. On Sunday, Trump clarified that the exemption only applies to the tariffs that went into effect over the last week. A 20% tariff implemented in February remains in place for electronics imports.

After months of anticipation, Trump unveiled his reciprocal tariff policy on April 2. The new import duties became effective over the next week. In talks with the press, multiple officials in the Trump administration said that more than 70 countries have asked to negotiate trade deals with the US. Trump cited these ongoing talks as one of the reasons for pausing the reciprocal tariff policy.

US Retailers Slash Import Forecast for Q2, Citing Tariff Announcements

US retailers have significantly reduced their import projections for the second quarter of this year, citing the impact of Trump’s reciprocal tariff policy. According to data found in the latest Global Port Tracker (GPT), retail imports arriving at US ports in May and June are now expected to be more than 20% lower than previously forecasted.

The GPT is a monthly report from Hackett Associates and the National Retail Federation (NRF). In the latest edition, Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said the reduced import forecasts reflect the uncertainty felt in global supply chains following the announcement of the reciprocal tariff policy.

“In this environment of complete uncertainty, our forecast for import cargo will be subject to significant adjustments over the coming months,” Hackett said. “At present, we expect to see imports begin to decline by May and that they will drop dramatically during the remainder of the year.”

The GPT now projects May US imports at 1.66 million TEUs, a 22.4% decrease from the March forecast and a 20.1% drop from May 2024’s actual volumes. If these predictions become reality, it would mark the first year-over-year decline in US imports since September 2023. June imports are now forecast at 1.57 million TEUs, a reduction of over 24% compared to the March forecast, with a similar year-over-year drop.

Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said in the GPT that a decline in imports was inevitable after US businesses spent months frontloading to get ahead of tariffs.

“Retailers have been bringing merchandise into the country for months in attempts to mitigate against rising tariffs, but that opportunity has come to an end with the imposition of the ‘reciprocal’ tariffs,” Gold said.

Hopes for Trucking Rebound Dim as Tariffs Impact Truckload, LTL Sectors

Although recent hopes for a rebound in the US domestic truckload market in 2025 were high, the reciprocal tariff policy is now causing industry observers and stakeholders to change their expectations.

AFS Logistics released its latest TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index Forecast last Tuesday. The index shows US truckload pricing declining to levels near its 2023 low despite a brief uptick in early Q1. AFS, a third-party logistics provider, said its data showed the average truckload linehaul cost per shipment fell by 1.5% in Q1. This marks the ninth consecutive quarterly drop for the US truckload sector.

Both AFS and the investment bank TD Cowen said they expect truckload rates to decline in Q2, citing economic uncertainty resulting from Trump’s tariff policy.

Further evidence of the truckload market’s decline can be found in the shipper-paid, all-inclusive spot rates tracked monthly by the Journal of Commerce (JoC). Spot rates in March were at $2.18 per mile, according to the JoC. This figure is the same as a year ago, but also represents a decline of 19 cents since January 2025.

AFS also forecasts a slight drop in its US less-than-truckload (LTL) freight index, from 63.8% in Q1 to 63.4% in the current quarter. Aaron LaGanke, AFS vice president of freight service, said tariff uncertainty hasn’t fully impacted the US LTL sector yet.

“Truckload typically feels the impact of macroeconomic forces and trade policy first, then LTL has more of a delayed reaction,” LaGanke said in a statement released last week.

US Congress Introduces Legislation in Response to Cargo Theft Crisis

Following testimony from supply chain stakeholders and other calls for Congressional action, a bipartisan group of federal lawmakers has introduced the Combating Organized Retail Crime Act of 2025 (CORCA) to address the ongoing cargo theft crisis. At a March Senate subcommittee hearing, supply chain stakeholders testified that cargo theft costs US supply chains up to $35 billion annually.

Sponsored by Senators Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nevada) along with several members of the House of Representatives, the bill aims to improve collaboration among law enforcement, shippers, and carriers. If passed, CORCA will also strengthen federal prosecutions of cargo theft and increase penalties for those convicted of related crimes.

One of the bill’s key provisions is the formation of the Organized Retail and Supply Chain Crime Coordination Center. The supply chain stakeholders who testified in March asked Congress to create such an organization to better coordinate the federal response to cargo theft incidents. If CORCA becomes law, the center will fall under the Department of Homeland Security.

CORCA would broaden federal statutes to classify cargo theft as an interstate commerce crime, allowing federal prosecutors to aggregate losses from multiple thefts in a 12-month period into a felony charge. This measure directly addresses concerns BNSF Railway and CSX Transportation raised during the subcommittee hearings that prosecuting cargo theft on a “per-container basis” results in inadequate penalties.